Met Office v Joe Bastardi

What Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North, writes on his blog is so distinct from the rest of the BBC’s weather and climate output it makes me suspicious of why it gets published.  You wouldn’t see Richard Black, Roger Harrabin or David Shukman writing pieces that, say, explore the influence of the sun on climate, because their friends in the global warming consensus have dismissed such ideas.

I keep waiting for Hudson to suddenly pop up and say ‘Ha ha! Fooled you!’ which, when you think about it, is a terrible indictment of the BBC.  Hudson’s latest offering, “A frozen Britain turns the heat up on the Met Office” questions whether there is a ‘warm’ bias in the forecasting model of the Hadley supercomputer.  Well it is very possible.  Models are created with human determined parameters and if you put junk in you get junk out, and let’s face it, Hadley is infested with people who are slavishly devoted to the global warming creed so the likelihood of bias is high.  But I digress.

Hudson refers in his blog to an expert senior meterologist at called Joe Bastardi.  While the UK Met Office was trotting out its repeated claims that we were going to experience a mild winter with less than a 20% chance of really cold weather, Bastardi was warning us that this extreme cold was on its way.  He took a lot of flak for it, but stuck to his guns and events have shown him to be extremely accurate.

One commenter on Hudson’s blog claimed Bastardi “always forecasts a cold winter so eventually will get it right one day”.  But is that fair or just an ad hominem attack on a man who put the Met Office’s collective nose out of joint?  Over a period of time, just how accurate is Joe Bastardi compared to our lavishly funded Met Office?

Of the last eleven winters, the Met Office forecast milder conditions than actually occurred for nine of them.  The last time Bastardi predicted a colder winter was last year for eastern Europe.  He was right (again). Prior to that, the last cold winter he predicted was for 2002-3.  Hardly evidence of him always forecasting cold winters.

How come the Met Office gets seasonal forecasting wrong so often, but Joe Bastardi has a greater degree of accuracy?  Perhaps it’s because the Met Office approaches its forecasts from a default position of mankind warming the globe, while Bastardi has no bias and relies on proper scientific method and observation.  Bastardi’s accuracy clearly speaks for itself.  Despite the recession the number of companies relying on accurate forecasting who are buying Bastardi’s forecasts has actually increased.

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3 Responses to “Met Office v Joe Bastardi”

  1. 1 Josualdo 11/01/2010 at 10:10 pm

    Hmm or because the Met Office people paid even when they fail their forecasts, which might not be Bastardi’s case? Oh well, they can even get a 30% rise?

  2. 2 James P 12/01/2010 at 11:21 am

    I believe that Piers Corbyn ( predicted the current cold spell last July. The MO insists that such long-range forecasts are impossible although, of course, that doesn’t discourage it from predicting the climate in 50 or 100 years!

  3. 3 Joe bastardi 09/02/2010 at 5:49 pm

    Piers and The Weather Outlook also had the cold winter.

    I have great respect for the Hadley centre. However in a blog
    I published over a couple of weeks ago they have to understand
    they developed models during a warming PDO and warming AMO
    and so the cold bias of the models because IT WAS GETTING WARMER,
    was corrected, but is of no value now!. The outside drivers
    that models can not adjust too, low solar activity ( Piers is
    big on solar cycles) or volcanic activity , or natural cyclical
    reversal mean the models are reactive, not proactive
    to what is going on. They cant see what they dont know.

    To close. common sense dictates that in the majesty of the creation, no man or model has the answer to tomorrow until
    it is fact. Many of us on the “other side” of the climate
    debate learn more humility in the face of nature each day.


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