Met Office covers itself in forecasting glory again…

Courtesy of a Freedom of Information response from the Cabinet Office, we can now see what the Met Office advised the government about the weather for January to March 2011.

(click to enlarge)

So far we know that the UK was very slightly cooler than 1971-2000 average in January and experienced its ninth warmest February in the last 100 years, that at 2deg above the average can be considered more than mild for the time of year. No doubt this will be presented by the Met Office as another successful bit of work.

Given the fact they have demonstrated again that forecasting beyond several days ahead is ineffective, you would think they would focus on addressing the way their computer models work.  But instead they want us to count aircraft con-trails and watch bubbles float around as part of a ‘climate survey’ !!  And we pay for this out of our tax pounds.

8 Responses to “Met Office covers itself in forecasting glory again…”


  1. 1 Tufty 04/03/2011 at 3:28 pm

    Interesting. This seems to be a private admission that an unspecified climate driver can reverse significantly the supposed warming effect of CO2.

  2. 2 The Wasp 04/03/2011 at 8:11 pm

    *Given the fact they have demonstrated again that forecasting beyond several days ahead is ineffective*

    Unfortunately from what I have seen, even that statement is rather generous as the one and two day forecasts are unreliable at best and often downright wrong.

    Last year I collected a sequence of their 5 day forecasts to see how good they actually were and the results speak for themselves :

    Looking out of the window or seaweed and pinecones seem much more reliable to me and certainly cost a lot less than £83 million a year to maintain.

  3. 3 Climate Change Con....... 04/03/2011 at 8:46 pm

  4. 4 Climate Change Con....... 04/03/2011 at 8:48 pm

    Fred Singer points out that battles in the climate wars are beginning to be won..

  5. 5 Martin Brumby 04/03/2011 at 9:00 pm

    Mystic MET is a Partner / Funder of the “ZeroCarbonBritain2030” group.

    Absolute proof that they have completely lost the plot.

  6. 6 Uncle Badger 05/03/2011 at 12:05 pm

    The Wasp is right. I pay close attention to the weather – particularly at this time of the year, as I’m keen gardener. The Met Office, whatever it fiddles its statistics to suggest, offers hopelessly unreliable forecasts even for the short-term.

    Given the revelations surrounding Howard Davies and his grubby trade at the rotten-to-the-core LSE, scandals at the MOD, the wholesale corruption in Parliament and the fact that even the MET office is bent out of shape, is it not the case that our institutions are rotten to the core and that, as Dr Richard North seems riskily close to advocating, we should start to tear it all down?

    Certainly, a few hangings and floggings seem in order.

  7. 7 David S 05/03/2011 at 12:56 pm

    Well done for digging this up. I am hugely encouraged by the fact that their multi-million pound forecasting method seems to be simply a knee-jerk reaction to the current month’s weather – December was cold, so it is likely that January and February will be as well – rather than a presumption that it will always be warmer than average. If there is a “random walk” element to weather/climate then their chances of getting it right will be significantly improved. Pity about the entirely pointless mega-computer and the army of taxpayer-funded spin doctors, though.


  1. 1 Met Office covers itself in forecasting glory again… « Autonomous Mind « office Trackback on 04/03/2011 at 4:16 pm
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