After the European Elections we saw some pollsters, notably Survation, claim that their predicted share of the vote would have been correct if only people hadn’t mistakenly voted for Mike Nattrass grouping, ‘An Independence from Europe’.
A number of UKIP’s outriders on various forums and newspaper comment threads suggested that UKIP would have done even better in the election but for the media’s smear campaign against Nigel Farage and the party – this despite saying for weeks that the smear campaign would only serve to increase UKIP’s support and vote.
We also heard that polling was showing anything between 60-75% of UKIP voters would stick with the party at the General Election ensuring the party a record vote – fuelling claims from the Faragistas that UKIP could hold the balance of power in Westminster in May 2015 on the back of this ‘surge’.
So, what to make of two separate polls this week that show a uniform pattern?
This week’s general election poll for Lord Ashcroft shows UKIP down another two points, which is a repeat of last week, meaning UKIP has dropped four points in a fortnight.
Meanwhile, the regular poll for ComRes, showing the favourability rating of the party leaders, shows Nigel Farage has dropped six points on the index overall since April.
This isn’t a gloat. This is merely confirmation of what we have been saying for some time. There is no surge.
The European Elections were the outlet, for those who could be bothered to vote, to either stick by their party or register a protest safe in the knowledge the result is utterly meaningless. This country could have sent 73 Monster Raving Loony MEPs to Brussels and it would not have changed a thing.
For too many people UKIP has become a religion. Too many are setting aside reality and pushing arguments based on emotion and faith, they seem to have a need to demonstrate belief. The problem is their faith is in a party which has missed open goals time and again and a man who has demonstrated his pledges are no more ‘cast iron’ than those of David Cameron. The party is ignoring its core proposition and jumping on any issue where it thinks it can get votes.
The subject of leaving the EU is less important to the party’s supporters than stopping immigration – something UKIP cannot deliver because it has no plan and plainly does not understand the governance of immigration in the modern world. Farage dived onto immigration simply to hoover up the votes of those who are vehemently against it. As such the focus on leaving the EU is diluting month on month.
The current polling suggests that UKIP will be holding a bad hand in May 2015. It will not have a chip in the big game or be able to influence what happens in Westminster. The only impact the party will have is to deprive some Conservatives from winning seats. While that might make UKIP followers pleased as punch, it will do nothing to advance the cause of leaving the EU and will be followed by a slow decline as people peel away from the party, realising that supporting it is not making any difference.
These are not good times for the anti-EU side.
Autonomous Mind 
Ukip don’t claim a surge. UKIP don’t want a surge, boom and bust. The increase is steady. People do not vote UKIP lightly, like voting SDP which was trendy. Voting UKIP is going against everything you hear day in and day out on MSM.
UKIP will get seats in 2015, and possibly hold the balance of power so as get an EU referendum.
xx As such the focus on leaving the EU is diluting month on month…..
These are not good times for the anti-EU side.xx
Quite.
And that is why I suspect they are a plant by the “main partys” to split the vote.
As you say yourself; “The only impact the party will have is to deprive some Conservatives from winning seats.”
Worthy sacrifices?
WHO is financing UKIP?
If an armed insurrection becomes the last resort so be it .
I am not aware of anyone predicting a UKIP ‘surge’ in the Opinion Polls.
Clearly there was s urge in the EU elections and also at Newark, albeit UKIP came 2nd, but were they really expected to win the Toreis 44th safest seat? Surely, Labour should have done better at Newark if, as the Lib Dems say, voters do not like the Coalition.
It remains to be seen if UKIP can keep improving between now and 2015 and here wlll be many twists and turns before we get to May 2015. One thing is for sure, neither Labour or Consevartive can be sure of winning an outright majority if UKIP take a mere 7% share of the vote and they are well on course to do just that,
As for getting out of the EU, they great cry was “UKIP is a single issue party”, so when they comment on other areas, particulkarly the No 1 issue for many voters, they are castigated for not wanting out of the EU.
I want to congratulate Oldschooltie for the best strawman I’ve seen in a while. I didn’t see anyone talking about a surge in the opinion polls, but I’ve seen plenty of kippers talking about the “Ukip surge”. Ukip supporters were talking about winning Newark after the Euro elections and only went quiet after getting soundly beaten.
What makes me laugh is Oldschooltie talking about whether Ukip can keep improving between now and 2015. The polls are showing the party’s support is ebbing away and Oldschooltie is only talking now about 7% of the vote and being nothing more than a spolier. What will that change?
If there’s something these kippers are good at its moving the goal posts. The great cry of Ukip being a single issue party was only coming from the other parties. Ukip should have stuck to its ground and shown that being in the EU affects most issues. Instead it courted the racists and xenophobes to give the impression the party had made electoral progress when its now just a dustbin for those voters and increasingly hated by a majority of ordinary voters.
Never mind. Tallbloke will be back talking about holding the balance of power at the next election and believing it. Nutters fruitcakes and closet racists was the one thing Camoron has ever said that was true.