That Met Office Global long-range probability map

Following on from yesterday’s post about the Met Office’s denial of having predicted a mild winter, the post has been updated with a screen grab of the Met Office long range probability map in October 2010 (which they claim is not a forecast).

The map is shown below (click to enlarge). The highlights are the Met Office’s assertion of an 80% probability of warmer than average temperatures for November, December and January for Scotland and a 60-80% probability of the same for Northern Ireland, Wales and most of England. The current sub zero temperatures and the layers of snow and ice suggest the Met Office got it badly wrong, again.

Their denial of a forecast is fatuous and their temperature map demonstrates clearly their computer models, featuring the global warming bias that undermines the Met Office’s predictions, are as much use as a chocolate fireguard.

Update: From Tufty in the comments (with thanks), Bishop Hill has more to suggest the Met Office is playing fast and loose with the facts.

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16 Responses to “That Met Office Global long-range probability map”


  1. 1 Andy Baxter 21/12/2010 at 12:24 pm

    hahahaha…..

    It wasn’t that long ago we were the “deniers” the “few we happy few”…who stood against the hordes of armoured (‘the science is settled’)warmists and their flag bearers in the BBC and the press, but we stood our ground (bloggers and supporters of) and fought for transparency, truth and honesty.

    How deliciously ironic that slowly the sea change is taking place and the likes of the Met office, Moonbat and the politicians and others of his ilk are slowly becoming the minority.

    The majority of people in Britain and the world understand the world as it impacts on ‘their’ world…locally…when we wake up and have to scrape ice of the windows of our cars for the 18th day running, when we have to have the gas boiler firing on all cylinders for hours on end and when we slip slide on untreated paths and roads and are delayed on roads rail and air networks destroying the habits and order of daily life, all the warmist guff and hot air means diddly squat, for the true ‘reality’ bites home like the ice cold tungsten steel of my crampons.

    Sadly our politicians insulated from not only the real world but the realilty that goes with it carry on regardless.

    But not for long hopefully….for they too will detect the sea change, and political animals have an instinctive in built sense of self preservation, already little Cleggyron is running scared (but no longer now he’s behind a £300K armoured jag alas) but he is noticing as are the others the mood of change….

    If only they could use what little brains they have left not addled and pickled in expenses and perks gravy to make the leap of recognition to reality and bingo we might actually start to see some of them herd together and start asking awkward questions in The House…

    Well maybe….

    good post on the Met AM and follow up

  2. 2 Gawain 21/12/2010 at 1:53 pm

    If it isn’t a forecast, then what is the point of it?

  3. 3 Tufty 21/12/2010 at 2:00 pm

    There is another interesting and closely related post over at Bishop Hill.

    http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2010/12/21/winter-resilience.html

  4. 4 Cthulhu 26/12/2010 at 12:29 am

    pfff it even says not to use it to forecast specific areas. How obvious do you want them to make it for you? In big red letters. Does it need to blink?

  5. 5 turboblocke 27/12/2010 at 12:53 pm

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20101028.html

    Winter forecast?

    28 October 2010

    Following public research, the Met Office no longer issues long-range forecasts for the general public; instead we provide a monthly outlook on our website.

    Despite this, you may have seen some reports in the media on Thursday, suggesting the Met Office has produced a forecast for the coming winter.

    These media reports have based their interpretation for the coming winter on probability maps on our website. However, they have been selective about the information they have used and you should not take these interpretations as a guide to the coming winter. Instead we would recommend using our monthly outlook and short range forecasts.

  6. 6 P Gosselin 06/01/2011 at 10:49 am

    Amazing. According to the map, Sweden was very likely to have a warmer than normal period. What did they get? The coldest December in 110 years!


  1. 1 La météo détournée par les verts | Contrepoints Trackback on 26/12/2010 at 11:56 am
  2. 2 BBC spins that Met Office got winter right, just kept it secret from public « Autonomous Mind Trackback on 04/01/2011 at 10:20 am
  3. 3 The Met Office Bullhockey | Watts Up With That? Trackback on 04/01/2011 at 10:38 pm
  4. 4 Met Office Forecast For Winter 2010 | Real Science Trackback on 06/01/2011 at 2:56 am
  5. 5 Warmists Until Hell Freezes Over/ESCALFADORS FINS QUE ES GELI L’INFERN « La República Catalana Trackback on 09/01/2011 at 10:47 am
  6. 6 Harrabin/BBC’s Warm-or-Cold Reticence (The Met Office’s Hidden Third Winter Forecast) « The Unbearable Nakedness of CLIMATE CHANGE Trackback on 10/01/2011 at 1:07 pm
  7. 7 The PJ Tatler » The UK Met Office: “Oops!” Trackback on 29/01/2011 at 6:55 pm
  8. 8 Changement climatique: La main dans le sac - Petit Renard Trackback on 30/01/2011 at 5:18 am
  9. 9 Anche tu climatologo | Climate Monitor Trackback on 04/02/2011 at 7:02 am
  10. 10 Harrabin/BBC's Warm-or-Cold Reticence (The Met Office's Hidden Third Winter Forecast) | Omnologos Trackback on 22/08/2012 at 7:00 am
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