Following on from yesterday’s post about the Met Office’s denial of having predicted a mild winter, the post has been updated with a screen grab of the Met Office long range probability map in October 2010 (which they claim is not a forecast).
The map is shown below (click to enlarge). The highlights are the Met Office’s assertion of an 80% probability of warmer than average temperatures for November, December and January for Scotland and a 60-80% probability of the same for Northern Ireland, Wales and most of England. The current sub zero temperatures and the layers of snow and ice suggest the Met Office got it badly wrong, again.
Their denial of a forecast is fatuous and their temperature map demonstrates clearly their computer models, featuring the global warming bias that undermines the Met Office’s predictions, are as much use as a chocolate fireguard.
Update: From Tufty in the comments (with thanks), Bishop Hill has more to suggest the Met Office is playing fast and loose with the facts.